UK Nationals 2018 - The Numbers



Numbers are what we make of them ... sort of. In order to fully appreciate the numbers presented in this article we need to contextualise them and understand what they are indicative of. This article does not pretend to be exhaustive in any way, and is merely statistical, please read the article as such!

[EDIT: I'll be adding to this article as I get time to sit and look more closely at the stats]

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The chart above is an overview of all the character teams reported at UK Nationals 2018 by the 102 players signed up for the event. I do not know how many of the players dropped and when they dropped, which is of course information that could significantly change the interpretation of the chart.

The character teams listed has to be read in conjunction with the chart and should be read line-by-line (left to right).Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 234414png
The chart above shows the five most popular Character teams, while "to make the cut" is a calculation of how many of the players that registered with that character team progressed into top16. It then follows that 11 of the 16 players in the top16 played a character team which was amongst the 5 most represented character team, which obviously makes sense.

Of the last 5 players to make the top cut only eCad Bane/eSnoke (2 list registered) and Snoke/Ciena/Aphra (3 list registered) was represented more than once:Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 155746png
One should of course be careful of making assumptions based merely on these numbers as there are a lot of unknown indicators, i.e. skill level of the players, match-ups, etc., but it does say something about the surprise element of these decks as well as early indications of power level.

It doesn't look like the meta is currently swinging heavily towards any faction, while it's obviously no surprise there's no representation of Neutral only characters, the distribution into Hero/Villain was in amongst the registered players as even as almost possible, while the top16 seemed to heavily favor Villains:Screen Shot 2018-08-29 at 000618png

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The reliance of a few VERY POWERFUL support characters seems to be a tendency that's only becoming stronger and stronger. Plenty has already been said about the power and consistency offered by characters such as Yoda (Hero) and Snoke (Villains), and their presence in the decks that made it into the top16 at UK Nationals is indicative of that tendency. The percentages represents the number of decks within each faction that had either Yoda or Snoke in the character team (either as non-elite or elite):YOda SNokejpg
And the tendency clearly continues, although at a lesser scale, but that is to be expected, when looking at the tournament at as whole. That is probably one of the most unfortunate developments - in particular because the are generally considered "too cheap", and thus the numbers here could support a thorough examination of whether or not both characters should be balanced out:YOda SNoke tournamentjpg


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It might be a bit early to pass judgement on that, but there's an almost even split between registered decks sporting 2 and 3 characters (slightly more 3+ wide character teams), while the players who made the cut into top16 looks like it's favoring the 3wide decks.Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 122944png

Obviously, it can be difficult to determine strictly from a character pairing what is the win condition of the deck (some might have several win conditions and I don't have access to all the deck lists), but using a combination of Battlefield choice and character pairing, the data gives the following distribution between "vehicle" decks vs. "mill decks":Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 124527png
The distribution then looks fairly even, with the eYoda/Cassian/Anakin mill deck representing roughly half of all the mill decks.

Competitive Star Wars Destiny players are always looking to maximize the efficiency of their deck, one means to achieve this is by maximizing their access to the best cards in the card pool. This would then support a rainbow strategy (3 colours), and while this theory does not hold any merit in the colour distribution of all registered decks at the tournament:Screen Shot 2018-08-29 at 010834png
It is clearly manifest in the distribution amongst those decks that made it into top16. There were no monocoloured decks and while the 2 coloured decks were still prevalent, it was only marginally so:
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I'll do follow-ups on this article when I get more time to crunch the numbers, but this will have to do for now!

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